big numbers and Jim Rogers

0361--9602--1361--9670
3361--9529--5517--2520

P. 23
I have not sat down and done a study of this phenomenon. In fact, I always used to recommend it as a dissertation topic for ambitious graduate students, but the hard data has been coming in. Banister and an associate actually began their analysis of the commodities and equities markets by asking their clients, “Do commodity-serving companies deserve your capital?” They concluded that, while stocks for most companies went down during a commodity bull market, companies connected to the commodities business – their focus was manufactures of heavy machinery used in agriculture, such as John Deere and Caterpillar - were likely to do quite well. That, too, would be explained by my theory. When oil prices were making record highs in 2004, the stock pickers on CNBC were shaking their heads about how awful the market was – except for oil and other energy – related companies, which, of course, was exactly what happened during the last bear market for stocks (and commodities bull) in the 1970s. While the stock market was going nowhere generally, there were some great success stories among oil and oil service companies.

P.29
The signal that a bull market is over is a series of fundamental changes in the way we live. In 1972, for example, the Club of Rome predicted that the world would soon run out of natural resources. Oil went from $3 a barrel to $34, and the prognosticators were publishing charts with oil prices heading for $100 by the mid-80s. President Jimmy Carter soon had Americans wearing sweaters, turning down their thermostats, buying smaller cars, and cursing OPEC. European nations began using nuclear power plants instead of oil to generated electricity, further decreasing oil demand. And then oil from new deposits discovered in the North Sea and Alaska began to come on line, increasing supply. By 1978, oil production had exceeded demand for the first time in years – a major fundamental shift, which should have signaled the end of the bull market. (Prices, however, continued to rise for two more years, proving that human beings can make markets move in strange ways. The last leg of a bull market always ends in hysteria; the last leg of a bear market always end in panic.) If scientists discover that orange juice causes cancer, the news will not result in a simple correction in the orange juice market; it will be the death of it.
When you see headlines about the discovery of new oil reserves or wind farms popping up outside major cities, when you see new mines coming on line, when you discover that stockpiles of all kinds of commodities are rising, those are fundamental shifts – then it’s time to get your money out of commodities. The bull market will be over.

P.33
To be sure, investing in anything has its risks. A lot of Ph.D.s in economics lost money in the dot-com debacle, too. (On New Year’s Day in 2002, the Wall Street Journal published its annual survey of economists for the upcoming year. Although the economy had been sagging for almost a year, not one of the 55 economists thought that it was in for a serious decline. One hundred percent were wrong – and proof that Ph.D. economists are as prone to mob psychology as the rest of us.)

--- "Hot Commodities", Jim Rogers

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fun

orchida_cattlea

orchida_cattlea

CATTLEYA (cat-LAY-a) - Cattleyas have earned the reputation as the "Queen of Orchids" and are known to the public as the ultimate in floral corsages. While some naturally occurring species are offered by growers, the most popular plants are man-made hybrids derived from combining Cattleyas with some of their close relatives to produce a wide range of colors, sizes and forms.
Temperature: The ideal day temperature is 75-85 degrees F., while the ideal night temperature is 60-65 degrees F. Occasional temperature extremes are tolerated if exposure is not prolonged.
Light: Cattleyas and their relatives require a good amount of light. They enjoy full sun in the morning, but will require shading from about 11am-3pm; less shading will be necessary in the late afternoon. Their leaves should be a light green color, and a darker green color indicates too little sun.
Water: Basically, cattleyas grow best when their potting medium becomes dry in between waterings. These plants are epiphytes in nature, (i.e. growing on top of trees) and are used to drying out between the rains of their natural habitat.
Repot: Cattleyas should not be repotted unless the plant have outgrown the pot (every 2 or 3 years) or when the potting medium begins to deteriorate. Or when the mixture become sour, does not drain rapidly and is invaded by snow mold or shows green mold on the surface. A coarse medium such as medium-grade Fir-bark, or coarse-grade Fir-bark will work well.
Feeding: High-nitrogen fertilizers (25-9-9) can be used year-round at one teaspoon per gallon of water. Feed once a month.
Cutting Dead Flower Spike: When the last flower drops, cut your flower spike all the way down the stem. Apply a pinch of cinnamon powder or melted candle to seal the wound. Continue caring for it and wait for a possible rebloom.
Recommended Book: You can Grow Cattleya Orchids, Revised Second Edition, by Mary Noble

from - http://www.beautifulorchids.com/

Lesson from House of Rothschild

"--- the legendary House of Rothschild who, --- attributed his success to two things. He said he always bought when there was blood in the streets-panic, chaos-when despondency gripped the markets. (In old man Rothschild's case, investing amid the turbulence of the Napoleonic wars, the blood was just as likely to be literal as it was to be figurative.) And he always sold "too soon." He did not wait for enthusiasm to peak. He always knew when to get out, and he got out in time with all his money.

"I doubt Meyer would be buying U.S. stocks these days, since he always waited for serious despair. After all, many on Wall Street are still raking in big money, employment there is down only slightly, stocks are not cheap by historical measures, and mutual funds are still thriving. He would probably point out that Japanese mutual funds have lost 95 percent of their assets since 1990; that is more like real blood in the streets.

“I suspect that old Meyer, if he were around today, would have moved his investments to commodities, after having gotten out of stocks earlier. There have been long periods when stocks did well while raw materials did horribly – the 1980s and 1990s, say. The late 1960s and the 1970s saw the reverse. From 1906 to the early 1920s stocks did nothing while commodities boomed. It may sound radical, but it has occurred repeatedly. There cycles always have occurred as supply and demand patterns have shifted. Everyone invested in stocks in the 1980s and 1990s, but little money went into productive capacity for natural resources. There was a glut after the great boom of the 1970s, so no one was calling us to invest in sugar plantations or lead mines or offshore drilling rigs. Demand has continued growing worldwide, eventually to exceed supply, which has been flat for years. Asia alone has become a huge buyer; china is now already one of the world’s largest importers. Excess inventories built up in the Cold War have been liquidated. We now have a classic change. Raw materials supply and demand are out of whack again, and inventories are down. Commodities will do well for years, while stocks, recovering from the bubble, will do little.

“The new commodity bull market has started, but few realize it yet, just as few recognized that a new bull market in stocks has started in the 1980s. Commodities rose more that 80 percent between the end of 1998, when Paige and I left, and the beginning of 2003, while shares were down substantially. The government, Wall Street, and the media keep telling us that prices are not rising, but one can go over to the commodity pages to check reality. War and the printing of money just ensure that the commodity boom will last even longer.

“But it will not last forever. Someday, in several years, we will have to sell our commodities and go back to stocks. Merrill Lynch no longer has commodity brokers because it is such a bad business. When Merrill Lynch goes back into the commodity business and CNBC starts broadcasting from the soybean pits in Chicago, sell out and buy stocks.”

--- P. 336-P338, "Adventure Capitalist" , Jim Roger